Current data — updated as new MLS sales record. All figures reflect recorded sales and should be interpreted in context.
Spring 2026 is not easing into the market — it’s arrived at full sprint. March MLS data shows 412 closed sales across all residential property types in the City, with single-family residences leading the charge at a median sale price of $2,075,000 and a city-wide overbid rate of nearly 123% of list price. The AI sector wealth effect is real and it is showing up in offers, not just in conversation. Inventory remains historically tight. Days on market remain embarrassingly short. And buyers who hesitate are watching the same property close above their highest number a week later.
This is not a market where you can take your time and still expect to win.
Nine out of ten single-family homes in the City sold above their asking price in March. Let that settle. The median overbid of 23% over list is not a statistical outlier or a one-neighborhood phenomenon — it’s broadly consistent across most districts. Sellers who priced their homes well were rewarded with competition; sellers who overpriced still found buyers, just with a bit more back-and-forth.
The February 2026 Vanguard market report clocked SFR median at $1,963,000 with average list-price received at 116.8%. March's MLS-recorded data shows the median stepped up further to $2,075,000 — the spring market has not cooled.
District 2 (the Sunset and Parkside) had the highest transaction volume at 40 sales, while District 5 (Noe, Castro, Haight) had the strongest overbid ratio. District 7 (Marina, Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow) is the outlier: fewer sales at dramatically higher prices, closer to list, which reflects the premium that neighborhood commands on its own.
| District | Neighborhoods | Sales | Median Sale | Median Overbid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sunset, Parkside, Golden Gate Heights | 40 | $1,940,000 | 132% of list |
| 4 | Forest Hill, West Portal, Sunnyside | 33 | $2,425,000 | 123% of list |
| 10 | Excelsior, Portola, Bayview, Visitacion Valley | 28 | $1,229,000 | 118% of list |
| 9 | Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Potrero Hill | 24 | $1,582,500 | 123% of list |
| 5 | Noe Valley, Castro, Haight, Glen Park | 19 | $2,700,000 | 127% of list |
| 1 | Richmond, Lake Street, Sea Cliff, Jordan Park | 15 | $2,320,000 | 119% of list |
| 3 | Ingleside, Stonestown, Merced Heights | 8 | $1,640,000 | 118% of list |
| 7 | Marina, Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow | 10 | $6,311,750 | 106% of list |
District 6: Lower Pacific Heights, NoPa, Japantown, and Hayes Valley recorded fewer than 5 single-family home sales in March 2026 and is therefore excluded from the district comparison table.
As a general rule, districts with fewer than 8 recorded sales should be interpreted with caution, as small sample sizes can produce misleading median price and overbid statistics.
The condo story in March 2026 is a tale of two markets within one property type. Condos in District 5 and District 7 are behaving differently from condos in District 9 and District 8 — and understanding that split matters more than the city-wide average.
| District | Neighborhoods | Sales | Median Sale | Median Overbid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SOMA, South Beach, Mission Bay, Dogpatch, Inner Mission | 72 | $1,200,000 | 100% of list |
| 8 | Russian Hill, North Beach, Downtown, Nob Hill | 40 | $1,004,500 | 102% of list |
| 7 | Marina, Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow | 34 | $1,807,500 | 113% of list |
| 5 | Noe Valley, Castro, Haight, Mission Dolores | 33 | $1,750,000 | 117% of list |
| 6 | Lower Pacific Heights, NoPa, Japantown, Hayes Valley | 19 | $849,000 | 100% of list |
| 1 | Richmond, Lake Street | 6 | $1,868,560 | 111% of list |
The split between District 5/7 condos and District 9/8 condos is meaningful. In Noe Valley, the Castro, Pacific Heights, and the Marina, condos — which often means flat-over-flat Edwardians, TIC conversions, or boutique buildings — are seeing the same competitive dynamics that single-family homes experience. Buyers in those areas are bidding the same way.
District 9 and 8 tell a different story. South Beach, SOMA, and much of the high-rise condo inventory near the ballpark and Mission Bay is selling at or just slightly above list. This isn’t distress — it’s a more liquid, more transparent market where what’s priced right sells. The buildings with HOA issues, special assessments, or post-pandemic rental exposure are still moving, but not the same way a 1920s Pacific Heights flat moves.
TICs continue to offer a real entry point into the City’s best neighborhoods at a discount to the equivalent condo. The financing wrinkle remains (fractional loans or group loans rather than individual mortgages), but buyers who understand the structure and do their due diligence are finding value here that’s increasingly hard to find in the SFR or condo market. District 5 TICs had the most activity at 9 sales, with District 7 and 8 also active.
The 2–4 unit category is where investors and owner-occupants are still finding relative value in the City — if you can navigate rent control, the insurance market, and a lender who understands income properties. At roughly $609/sqft on combined living area, the per-foot premium over single-family homes is not as wide as you might expect, which says something about where demand is concentrated right now. The price distribution was wide this month — from $765,500 to $17,100,000 — driven by a handful of premium multi-unit buildings in the north end of the City. The practical working range for 2–4 units citywide is roughly $1.4M to $2.8M.
According to Vanguard’s February 2026 market report, the SFR median was $1,963,000 — up 22.7% year over year. Homes were selling in 12 days on average. Inventory was 22.7% below year-ago levels. Condos were moving in 13 days, with nearly 53% selling above asking — a 34.7-point jump from a year prior.
March’s recorded MLS data confirms that momentum held and in some cases accelerated. The AI sector’s influence on housing demand is not abstract — it’s showing up in offer prices, in the zip codes with the highest competition, and in the profile of buyers entering the market. Mortgage rates hovering in the low 6% range have kept a ceiling on some buyers’ reach, but they haven’t slowed the market in the neighborhoods that drive the City’s price story.
The year-over-year MLS dataset covering April 2025 through April 2026 shows 2,040 SFR sales at a citywide median of $1,725,000 with a median overbid of 113.5% — and that average is pulled down by the relative softness of Districts 10 and 7 (in opposite directions). Strip out the outliers and the competitive core of the City — Districts 1, 2, 4, 5, and 9 — and you’re looking at overbid rates of 12–23% consistently.
All data reflects closed sales recorded through the San Francisco MLS and county recording data as of the date noted. Statistics represent medians, not means, unless specified. Small sample sizes (fewer than 8–10 sales) should be interpreted with caution. This commentary is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Each transaction is unique.
San Francisco MLS, county recording data, Vanguard Properties market reports. Updated as new data becomes available.