TEAM K.HO | VANGUARD PROPERTIES

The District Survey — 2026 Market Update

Houses, Condos & TICs — 4,898 closed sales, July 15, 2025 through July 16, 2026 · the San Francisco MLS

A full year of closings, and the picture is unambiguous: the San Francisco housing market never really cooled—it just took the holidays off. Single-family closings dipped to 64 in January; by March the citywide median crossed $2M and hasn’t come back down—a $2.16M peak in May, $2.09M through June, and July running $2.13M through the 16th—while 83% of every house that closed this year sold over its list price. As always, each block—and each circumstance—is different. Here’s where the numbers actually landed, district by district.

The House Story First — Always

Noe Valley (5C): 110 houses closed this year at a $2.88M median — the deepest luxury-house market in the City.

SFH Median Price

$1,850,000

2,156 closings citywide

Median Over List

$360,500

among the 83% that beat list

List-to-Sale

117.9%

pricing below value, mostly

Days to Close

49

true exposure: under two weeks

That $360,500 median over list is the number to sit with. It is not froth — it is the City’s convention of pricing below expected value doing its job: a printed list price is an invitation, not a prediction.

Noe Valley (5C): 110 houses closed this year at a $2.88M median — the deepest luxury-house market in the City.

The Lay of the Land

Ten MLS districts, dozens of subdistricts, and — as the fog chart below explains — several climates. Keep this map handy; everything that follows is keyed to it.

Our Persistent Friend Karl – the Fog

We once had clients who had no idea it would ever be foggy in San Francisco moving here from the Mid-Atlantic wanting a beach experience. We educated them on how our microclimates impact daily living (and home prices). They bought in San Jose.

An extension of location! location! location! The most underappreciated factor about living here: The fog (aka Karl and/or the marine layer). The west side (Sunset, Richmond) lives under a marine layer most of the summer, while the east side (e.g., Mission, Bernal, Potrero) gets actual sun a lot of times while the west side is under the marine layer. But then again, there are many times where we are all bundling up in July while everyone else swelters. See fog.today for more.

The Districts at a Glance — Single-Family Medians

San Francisco MLS District 1 map

$2.49M

San Francisco MLS District 2 map

$1.80M

San Francisco MLS District 3 map

$1.40M

San Francisco MLS District 4 map

$2.25M

San Francisco MLS District 5 map

$2.80M

San Francisco MLS District 6 map

$3.44M

San Francisco MLS District 7 map

$6.35M

San Francisco MLS District 8 map

$4.24M

San Francisco MLS District 9 map

$1.80M

San Francisco MLS District 10 map

$1.12M

Where the Money Landed

Single-family median sale price by MLS district

Where the Real Competition Is

Price and competition are two different maps. The expensive districts are the calm ones; the fight is west of Twin Peaks and out in the Avenues.

  • District 2 is the City’s toughest room. 89% of Sunset and Parkside houses closed over list, with a median list-to-sale of 128.4% — the sharpest under-pricing convention anywhere. The median winner paid $430,000 over.
  • District 1 runs on half-million-dollar premiums. 88% of Richmond houses sold over list at a median of $522,500 over — on a $2.49M median sale. Karl the Fog is not a discount.
  • District 7 negotiates; it doesn’t auction. A $6.35M median, but only 54% over list and a 101.6% ratio. At this altitude, deals are conversations — until they aren’t: 2512 Union St listed at $7.95M and closed at $15M, a $7.05M over-list result that led the City this year.
  • Districts 9 and 10 are quietly fierce. 85% and 81% over list respectively — entry-level and mid-market houses have the deepest buyer pools in the City.

Prices and Volume, District by District

Single-Family Median Sale Price by District July 2025 to July 2026

Median Over-List, in Dollars Single-Family Sales That Beat Their List Price

District 10 moved the most houses (452) at the most attainable median ($1.124M) — it remains where the City’s first-time house buyers actually land. District 5’s $2.8M median rides on real depth: Noe Valley (5C) alone closed 110 houses at a $2.88M median, with a median $605,000 over list, and Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (5K) ran $3.48M across 49 sales. At the top of the subdistrict table, Cow Hollow (7D) posted a $7.89M median across 20 sales, edging Pacific Heights (7B) at $6.85M.

Single-Family Closings by District (2,156 total)

The Season in One Line

Citywide Single-Family Median by Month Bars = closings; July 2026 through the 16th

A caution on the spring surge: part of that January-to-May climb is mix — heavier high-end volume as the season warms. But the breadth is real: nine of ten districts posted over-list majorities through the spring (District 8, on thin volume, split evenly). This wasn’t one neighborhood carrying the average. July’s early read — $2.13M through the 16th — says the summer hasn’t blinked yet, though a half-month median is a sketch, not a portrait.

The Trophy Table

Address Where Sold For Vs. List
2830 Pacific Ave District 7B, Pacific Heights $27,500,000 At list
2880 Vallejo St District 7B, Pacific Heights $26,500,000 $1.5M over list
2606 Jackson St District 7B, Pacific Heights $24,000,000 $1.5M over list
2626 Larkin St District 8E, Russian Hill $24,000,000 At list
2315 Broadway St District 7B, Pacific Heights $22,205,500 Under list

Pacific Heights (7B) owns four of the five biggest sales; Russian Hill’s 2626 Larkin St is the outlier at $24M — full price, no theater. On the condo side, the towers still print numbers: 488 Folsom St #5301 closed at $9.845M — under list, which is exactly how the top of the downtown condo market negotiates now.

The City, lit up — from Twin Peaks toward downtown.

Condominiums — A Two-Speed Market

Condominium Median Sale Price by District

The neighborhood condo — flats & Edwardians

The downtown mid-rise — SOMA & the towers

The TIC building — the path to ownership

Citywide, 2,291 condos closed at a $1.185M median — and most sold at or below list, with a 100.0% median list-to-sale. But that average hides two different markets. Neighborhood condos moved like houses: District 5 at $1.50M (72% over list) — led by Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights (5E) at a $1.76M condo median — District 7 at $1.64M, District 1 at $1.50M. Downtown, District 8 posted $1.01M and District 9 $1.02M with only 31–38% closing over list — that’s where a condo buyer still has real leverage, real selection, and 77-day timelines to work with. By size, the ladder was clean: 1-bedrooms at $750K, 2-bedrooms at $1.33M, 3-bedrooms at $1.84M citywide.

TICs — The Path-to-Ownership Play

312 TIC closings at a $1,090,000 median, 56% over list with a modest $101,000 median premium. TICs remain the City’s honest discount for buyers who understand the structure — priced roughly $95,000 under the citywide condo median for often-larger space.

The Full Grid — Every District, Every Type

Same window, all three markets, side by side — because a house in District 2, a condo in District 9, and a TIC in District 5 are three different transactions with three different buyer pools. Over-list medians are among sales that beat list; days-to-close includes escrow.

Houses Sales Median Med. Over List % Over List List-to-Sale Days to Close
D1 185 $2,488,000 $522,500 88% 122.3% 43
D2 395 $1,800,000 $430,000 89% 128.4% 43
D3 142 $1,400,000 $239,556 86% 115.5% 40
D4 300 $2,245,000 $390,501 86% 116.8% 48
D5 290 $2,800,000 $535,000 82% 121.2% 50
D6 27 $3,435,000 $418,000 67% 110.4% 77
D7 99 $6,350,000 $800,000 54% 101.6% 63
D8 30 $4,237,500 $305,000 43% 100.0% 72
D9 236 $1,800,000 $414,600 85% 122.9% 61
D10 452 $1,124,000 $170,888 81% 112.2% 54

The house grid splits the City in two: the auction markets (D1, D2, D9 — 85–89% over list, 43–61 days) and the negotiation markets (D7 at 54%, D8 at 43% over list, 63–72 days). Note D2’s 128.4% list-to-sale: the Sunset prices lowest against value and closes fastest.

Condos Sales Median Med. Over List % Over List List-to-Sale Days to Close
D1 95 $1,500,000 $162,000 68% 107.3% 56
D2 31 $1,175,000 $115,000 61% 103.3% 70
D3 22 $692,500 $30,000 59% 101.2% 89
D4 42 $754,500 $25,000 40% 100.0% 94
D5 314 $1,500,000 $205,000 72% 109.7% 65
D6 230 $1,246,500 $163,000 58% 102.4% 60
D7 253 $1,635,000 $155,000 63% 103.6% 61
D8 436 $1,008,750 $60,000 38% 100.0% 77
D9 823 $1,020,000 $55,000 31% 100.0% 79
D10 45 $709,000 $11,000 31% 100.0% 106

Condo competition tracks geography, not price point: D5 condos behave like small houses (72% over list); D8 and D9 carry the volume — 1,259 combined closings — at flat 100.0% ratios and 77–79 days. D10 condos took 106 days, the slowest cell on this page.

TICs Sales Median Med. Over List % Over List List-to-Sale Days to Close
D1 27 $1,000,000 $200,000 63% 105.8% 96
D5 98 $1,117,000 $91,000 63% 102.7% 63
D6 40 $1,237,500 $115,000 68% 105.8% 64
D7 33 $1,420,000 $176,000 58% 102.2% 68
D8 63 $915,000 $50,500 38% 99.6% 71
D9 47 $894,000 $86,000 51% 100.1% 80

TICs cluster where the flats are: D5 (98 sales) is nearly a third of the citywide TIC market by itself. Districts 2, 3, 4 and 10 saw a handful or none — too thin to report honestly, so they’re omitted.

Notes & method.  Source: the San Francisco MLS, closed sales July 15, 2025 – July 16, 2026 (July 2026 partial). Houses, condos and TICs are reported separately, never blended. Over-list figures are in dollars, medians among sales that closed over list. Days-to-close includes escrow; a well-prepared house sees under two weeks of true public exposure. No living-area field in the export, so no $/sqft is quoted. All-cash vs. financed shares are not in the MLS export — that split lives in Assessor-Recorder deed records and will be added if sourced. Year-over-year comparisons will follow with the matching July 2024–July 2025 export. Each home — and each circumstance — is different; call for specifics.