Team K.Ho · Vanguard Properties

When IPO Monies Hit San Francisco’s Housing Market — and What it Means for Buyers and Sellers Alike, Before, During and After

A look back at two decades of MLS sales data starting in 2005, compared to big IPOs of the past, shows that home prices start rising just as soon as an SEC S-1 form is filed — but what comes after the lockout periods for employees open up?

By Kevin Ho · Team K.Ho, Vanguard Properties · DRE #01875957

We’ve seen IPOs and their price-disruptive and inflationary effects on San Francisco home prices many times before. The usual price differences between buying a home in the fall and buying one the following spring grow far larger as post-IPO lockout periods end and people liquidate their shares. But price growth starts far earlier than that — prices surge in anticipation of an IPO, the question is if there will be a second wave of cash to hit our market after lockout periods end for employees who will have copious amounts of new, sellable stocks.

What MLS Data Show

A review of 21 years of San Francisco MLS data and the academic work on the subject indicates that most home-price appreciation in San Francisco happens before anyone can sell a single share — and that is oftentimes (but not always) followed by a second surge in prices in the first spring selling season after an IPO. With prices surging to record levels in anticipation of expected IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic, some of the largest ever done, the question is not if the pre-IPO price surge has arrived but whether the spring market of 2027 will be even costlier for buyers and more lucrative for sellers.

Anticipation: the anticipation effect is bigger than the cash effect

UCLA Anderson School researchers tracked 720 California IPOs from 1993–2017, with most of the companies being based in the Bay Area. Home prices within a mile of a newly public company’s headquarters rose 3.3% between the S-1 filing — the SEC’s required first step before going public — and the first day of trading, then another 2.2% over the next six months (the lockout period), and just 0.1–1.4% when the lockup actually expired.

Looking at our own MLS sales data for house and condo sales since 2005 shows the same pattern but with larger contrast. While the data show a strong spring uptick following a given IPO is likely, it’s not certain — lest we forget that there are other market forces at play.

Pre IPO

Facebook S-1 → IPO, Jan–Jun 2012

+24%

Single-family median price, before a single share could sell

Post IPO + Lockout

Spring 2013, After the FB Unlocks

+29%

Biggest YoY jump in the dataset — condos +23%

The IPO Tsunami

Spring 2019

+0.3%

The wave that fizzled — shares broke issue, no cash echo

The AI Era

Spring 2026

+20%

Record $2.18M single-family median in May — condos +15%

The City’s Median Sale Prices vs. the IPO Liquidity Calendar, 2005–2026

Swipe horizontally to explore the complete timeline.

3-month rolling medians. Source: San Francisco MLS / InfoSparks; IPO and lockup dates from SEC filings and press reports.

A normal fall and spring — price consistency and seasonality

Our fall selling season in San Francisco is shorter and more compact, as most people want to get home sales done before holiday distractions and vacations start up. New single-family listings fall from an average of 418 in September to 184 in November and 98 in December; closings barely fall, though, as November is still the fourth-busiest closing month of the year, working through October’s contracts. Competition never really leaves either: 65% of houses still sell over list in November versus 70% at the May peak. Strip out the seasonal mix by looking at median $/sqft and a typical fall sale may come in just 2.2% below a spring sale.

400 300 200 100 0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

418

Sep

Oct

184

234

Nov

Dec

Swipe horizontally to view the complete year.

Okay, now for a post-IPO spring

Lockups — the period during which employees receiving stock are barred from liquidating their new wealth — usually run about 180 days after trading begins, so a spring IPO unlocks in the fall, and the first official opportunity to cash out happens in time for the following spring market.

Share of Houses Selling Over List, by Closing Month — the only soft window is Dec–Jan

Swipe horizontally to view the complete year.

Single-family, average of monthly values 2005–2026. Peak-competition months (≥68%) are shown in orange.

Indeed, you can see the IPO and lockup-expiration scenario play out in the $/sqft price differences: +3.9% between normal market cycles, but +14.4% in an unlock spring — nearly four times the normal value-add. Facebook’s staggered unlocks ran August 2012 through May 2013; spring 2013 saw median home prices surge 29%. Airbnb and DoorDash unlocked through 2021; spring 2021 ran +13.5%. The orange bars below are the springs that immediately followed a major unlock.

Spring Single-Family Price Growth, Year Over Year — springs after a big unlock are shown in orange

Swipe horizontally to view the complete timeline.

The IPO Diaries, at a glance

Company	IPO	Unlock(s)	Impact on SFH Sale Prices
Google	Aug 2004	Staggered, final Feb 2005	SFH $750K → $889K, Jan–May 2005 (+18.5%)
Facebook	May 2012	Aug 2012–May 2013	+24% into the IPO; spring 2013 +29% YoY
Twitter	Nov 2013	May 2014	Spring 2014 +9%; spring 2015 +22% as the cohort compounded
Uber, Lyft, Pinterest, Zoom	Spring 2019	Aug–Nov 2019	Flat — shares underwater, anticipation already spent in 2018
Airbnb, DoorDash	Dec 2020	Feb–Jul 2021	Spring 2021 +13.5%; condos lagged in the pandemic
Figma · AI Tender Offers	Jul 2025 · ongoing	Jan 2026 · pre-IPO cash	Spring 2026 +20% to a record $2.18M median

A cautionary case study: 2018–19 — the tsunami that just lapped at the shore

One IPO frenzy — and fizzle — began a full year before any actual IPO took place, before any S-1s were filed. Spring 2018 home prices ran +17% year over year to a then-record $1.61M June 2018 median, driven by the expectation that Uber, Lyft, Pinterest, Airbnb and the rest would all have their IPOs in 2019 — the press named it the “IPO tsunami.” But then there was a fourth-quarter 2018 tech selloff that knocked the Nasdaq down more than 20%. The City’s median prices followed, dropping to $1.40M by January 2019.

Against that background, Lyft and Uber filed their respective intent to go public with the SEC in December 2018 confidentially, without an actual S-1. Lyft’s public S-1 came in March 2019, followed by its IPO at the end of the month. Uber, Pinterest and Zoom filed their S-1s in April 2019, with actual (relatively disappointing) IPOs following thereafter.

Case Study: The 2018–19 “IPO Tsunami” Single-family median, 3-month rolling · Oct 2017–Apr 2020

Swipe horizontally to explore the complete timeline.

Source: San Francisco MLS / InfoSparks; filing, IPO and lockup dates from SEC filings and press reports.

Yes, housing prices appreciated slightly past June 2018 levels by summer 2019, but prices were essentially flat year over year. And the cash surge never arrived, as the fundamentals were not solid. WeWork’s S-1 imploded on impact; Lyft’s IPO saw its shares plunge 35% from initial prices. Yes, Zoom and Pinterest stayed positive, but compared to Uber’s epic IPO — 760 million-plus shares plunging some 42% from the initial offering price by November 2019 — it became clear that there was no extra cash for stock-flush employees to spend on new homes.

While fall 2019 stayed busy — 79% of houses still sold over list — prices went sideways for the rest of the year until the Pandemic in 2020 (and that’s another story for another day). But three takeaways emerged from the 2018–19 interlude: 2018’s spring anticipation surge took place before any public S-1 filing; the subsequent IPOs fell short of expectations, meaning there would be no post-lockup surge as the fundamentals of those given companies weren’t there; and those underwater shares became a non-event for our housing market.

This cycle is different — the cash is here, now

In every prior surge cycle, most employees had to wait out a 180-day lockup to spend their new wealth. Today, OpenAI and Anthropic employees are converting equity to cash now, before any actual IPO, through company tender offers, secondary sales, and loans against private stock — an estimated $135 billion and $63 billion of post-tax equity respectively, per Redfin data reported by Axios. This may explain why the spring 2026 market ran +20% with no S-1s filed: the anticipation effect and, it seems, the post-lockup cash-surge effect are hitting at the same time. How company shares perform when they actually list will be the moment when we will see if we’ve already reached the peak of an IPO, lockup-surge cycle or if this year has just been the beginning.

This S-1, IPO, lockup cycle has already broken our seasonal rules: November 2025 saw homes sell at 114.1% of list — the strongest November ever recorded, against a typical 105.5% margin of list to sell. Far lower inventory levels have plagued San Francisco’s housing market throughout 2026, starting with record-low inventory in December 2025, which may show more likely sellers simply holding their properties so they can sell for more, or being priced out of buying replacement homes in the City.

What this means for…

Sellers: the window ahead of a headline S-1 is historically the strongest moment to bring a well-prepared house to market — buyers are spending wealth they can already see coming. We are in that period now.
Buyers: waiting for “the IPO money to clear” has historically meant paying more, not less; the market re-prices at the filing, and, if the stock performs well, the spring after will be especially competitive as lockups end — but that’s not always the case, as history shows.
Condo owners: condos follow the same cycles with smaller amplitude — +23% in spring 2013, +15% in spring 2026 — and the current AI wave is finally pulling condo prices off their post-Pandemic plateau as people can afford a condo rather than a single-family home.

For more reading, check out the actual, published study by Messrs. Hartman-Glaser, Thibodeau and Yoshida — you can see their article from Real Estate Economics here: Cash to Spend: IPO Wealth and House Prices

A note on the ratios: percent-of-list figures in the City partly reflect the convention of pricing below expected value — the level flatters the frenzy; the change in the ratios, however, is the more robust indicator we look at.

Time for some Q+As for sellers (and buyers): now in the fall, or then, in the spring?

Q: In a non-IPO cycle, my house is ready to go in September or October. Should I hold for spring?

No — go. The fall market is nearly as competitive as spring (69% of houses selling over list in Sep–Oct versus 70% at the May peak, and only about 2.2% below spring on $/sqft). Holding a September-ready house until March 2027 means five or six months of carrying costs — mortgage, taxes, and insurance — to capture a normal-year escalator of about +3.9%. On a $2M house that is roughly $78K of expected appreciation against $50–70K of carrying and life on hold. In a normal year, close to a wash.

Q: And in an unlock year?

The math flips if there really is a post-lockup cash surge. The fall-to-next-spring escalator jumps from +3.9% to +14.4% (on a $/sqft basis) — which should make up for any carrying costs. Sellers who held from fall 2012 to spring 2013 were paid handsomely for waiting, but the same was not the case for fall 2018 and spring 2019.

Q: If I wait in the fall for the spring in an IPO cycle, will there be a payoff?

Waiting to time the market is always fraught — unless it’s someone ready to sell in August waiting until September, or December waiting until January. It is a bet, not a coupon. Sellers who held from spring to fall 2022 gave back roughly 18% when rates broke the market, and the 2019 sellers who waited on the “IPO tsunami” got nothing. Now, if you are improving your home in the meantime — updating finishes in kitchens and/or bathrooms, or doing repair work so that the investments to a home really show — then there’s a different narrative to consider.

Q: What about this AI cycle specifically?

This IPO go-around isn’t necessarily seasonal but is shaping up (from current indications) to approximate San Francisco’s normal seasonality. The S-1 and actual IPO dates make the difference. If an OpenAI or Anthropic S-1 drops in October, history says the market re-rates that week, and a house on the market that fall just catches the surge without waiting for spring at all. Meanwhile the anticipatory market surge is already here. Holding out for more is a different risk profile than holding in a normal market.

Q: Bottom line?

Our advice is still to aim for the Labor Day–early October window; if we miss it, we are usually better off holding for spring anyway. But this fall may see many more buyers clamoring to compete and buy now, out of fears of being priced out in Q1/Q2 2027. That said, if more sellers choose to sell next cycle, there may well be more inventory and more seller competition.

As always, this is the citywide picture — each neighborhood, and each circumstance, is different. If you want the block-by-block read, call us.

Sources:

UCLA Anderson research brief · CNN on Facebook’s Nov 2012 unlock · CNN on Google’s Feb 2005 unlock · CNBC on Uber’s Nov 2019 unlock · NBC on the 2019 IPO-wave housing fears · Figma lockup end, Jan 27 2026 · Axios on AI wealth and SF home buying · SF Standard on $1M-over-asking sales

San Francisco MLS / InfoSparks (monthly medians, $/sqft, sold & new listings, percent-of-list, DOM and months-of-supply series through June 2026); Hartman-Glaser, Thibodeau & Yoshida, “Cash to Spend” (UCLA Anderson); SEC filings & press for IPO/lockup dates; Axios/Redfin, July 2026.

Kevin Ho · Team K.Ho, Vanguard Properties

team-kho.com · 415.297.7462 · DRE #01875957

Prepared as a market briefing on the relationship between major technology IPO cycles and San Francisco housing prices. Analysis draws on San Francisco MLS sales data from 2005–2026, alongside IPO, S-1 filing and employee lockup timelines. Historical market patterns are descriptive and are not a prediction of future prices or any individual sale. Not intended as the solicitation of a property already listed. Equal Housing Opportunity.